Securing enough supplies for the next winter season and meeting the storage obligations remains a key challenge for Europe. While the EU managed to fill its energy storage facilities for Winter 2022-23, shortage concerns are still on everybody’s minds, in the search for long-term solutions to replace Russian gas. But smarter storage solutions will not be enough – energy efficiency will have to be improved as well, in order to go through next winter and comply with the Green Deal’s objectives.

• Can the newly established Energy platform, more efficient storage and efficient consumption be enough?
• How to accelerate the deployment of renewables heat sources, adopt a consumer-centric approach and make these technologies affordable?

The response of governments to the war in Ukraine has plunged the world into an energy security mindset, with Europe doubling down on renewable energy investments. But is Europe doing enough to meet the goals of the Paris agreement? Where do we need to move more quickly to achieve net zero by 2050? 

To help explore these challenges, Shell is pleased to share The Energy Security Scenarios:  Archipelagos and Sky 2050. The scenarios explore how the world could possibly evolve under different sets of assumptions and can help individuals and organisations think about the long-term challenges that they, and the world at large, could face. The Archipelagos scenario seeks to follow a possible path from where the world was in 2022, while Sky 2050 takes a “normative approach” that starts with a desired outcome and works backwards to explore how that outcome could be achieved. In the case of Sky 2050, the future it is aimed at is a world that accomplishes net-zero emissions by 2050.

The European Union is increasingly betting on hydrogen to play an important role in the bloc’s decarbonization plans. The European Commission laid out plans for a “European Hydrogen Bank” and clarified criteria for what qualifies as renewable hydrogen. But not everyone agrees on how big of a role this flourishing market should play:

• How does the EU’s hydrogen response counter the threat of the Inflation Reduction Act, which offers very generous tax credits to scale up this market?
• How can hydrogen help decarbonize heavy industries such as freight and maritime transport, steel and fertilizers production?
• How can we decarbonise hydrogen production and scale-up technologies such as electrolysis?
• What should we expect from the upcoming hydrogen auctions?
• Are the EU’s hydrogen targets realistic?
• How should the bloc tackle the import challenges?
• What role for blue hydrogen in Europe?

The war in Ukraine has highlighted some of the EU’s dependencies in its food supply chains. Food security is central, and we are facing many challenges. Our food systems need to be less wasteful, decarbonised, and resilient – both to adapt to climate change and to mitigate its effects. The EU is faced with degraded soil quality and a sharp decrease in biodiversity. Innovations such as precision farming or new alternatives to fertilisers can offer solutions to achieve the Green Deal’s objectives of a 50 % reduction in the use of chemical pesticides and a 25% increase in the share of organic farming.

• How to make sure that European food production remains competitive?
• How to ensure sustainable and resilient food supply chains across the bloc?
• How to replace pesticides?
• Which innovations should play a central role in the years to come?

As the shift towards renewable energy accelerates, expanding the EU’s self-produced energy base will be key for Europe to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, all while maintaining low-carbon growth and prosperity. In unlocking these opportunities for industry and consumers, and achieving the EU’s goal of strategic autonomy, some questions remain about how to ensure that the wide-scale adoption of solar, wind and other sources maintains respect for landscapes and communities.

Transport accounts for approximately 25% of all EU emissions. Emissions have continued to increase, mainly as a result of increased demand for freight transport. In a globalised world economy, reliant on complex international supply chains, how can the EU balance the benefits of transport including connectivity, growth, and employment with its ambitious goal of climate neutrality?

• How can the EU speed up the greening of freight transport?
• How to design and encourage more sustainable modes of transport?
• What investments and infrastructures are needed for a carbon-neutral mobility?
• What role can sustainable fuels and hydrogen play in this process?

As the share of electricity produced by renewables (mainly solar and wind) is expected to grow to more than 60% by 2030 and given the volatility of the EU’s energy market in 2022, with high prices and concerns about security of supply, the Commission has unveiled plans to structurally reform the electricity market with the aim of boosting Europe’s self-produced energy base, lowering prices and achieving climate neutrality. 

• How to make the electricity market more efficient but still integrated?
• Can a new market design help accelerate the transition to renewables?
• Can affordability and stable prices be guaranteed to industries and consumers?
• What timeline can we expect for the reform?

Fossil fuels still represent an important part of the EU’s energy mix. While they are being phased out, we undoubtedly need to develop more clean technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) to attenuate their effect, as well as new clean technologies to achieve net zero by 2050.

• How to promote European R&D, investments and public/private partnerships in clean tech and CCS?
• After the R&D phase, how to ensure that new technologies are scaled-up, deployed and available on the market?
• To what extent can carbon capture, reuse and removal technologies decarbonise heavy industries?
• How can we ensure that clean technologies are “clean” throughout their lifespan, from mining for materials to correctly disposing of them?

The current energy crisis and ensuing inflation have considerably eroded EU consumers’ purchasing power and have also slowed down European production. Although the EU has responded with concrete measures a strong and united response to this economic situation could further soften the blow. 

• Can the “Green Deal Industrial Plan” counter the IRA?
• Can it create a stable environment, favourable to investments, consumption, and growth across the bloc?
• Can the EU stay competitive, maintain, and further develop its industry?
• What are the limits of state aid and “Green Protectionism”?
• What funding for the key technologies of the green transition will be needed?